The Kyle Effect: Arkansas Voters and Obama

I continue to explore the "Kyle Effect" and today I cover Arkansas. The "Kyle Effect" is the percentage of support Obama loses in a general election match up with McCain as compared to a general election match up between Hillary and McCain. I want to point out the train wreck the DNC is heading toward this fall because of its idiocy in choosing the weaker candidate, Obama, instead of the strongest candidate, Hillary Clinton. From a Rasmussen Reports poll taken on June 12, 2008 we see this:

Arkansas Trends: McCain vs. Obama
Date	McCain	Obama
6/12/2008	48%	39%
5/12/2008	57%	33%
3/18/2008	59%	30%

Arkansas Trends: McCain vs. Clinton
Date	McCain	Clinton
5/12/2008	39%	53%
3/18/2008	50%	43%

The poll was taken after Hillary dropped out of the race and leaving the Democratic general election campaign to Obama.The headline states breathlessly "Arkansas: Clinton Supporters Help Pull Obama Within Single Digits" Well ... it seems Obama did pick up some of Hillary's supporters but he gained only 6 points while McCain lost 9 points. The more logical conclusion would be that he lost some Republican voters after a string of anti-McCain media events by the right-wing press and gained a portion of Hillary supporters. Obama is also viewed unfavorably by a majority of Arkansas voters. He polls at a dismal 54% unfavorable rating.

The Kyle Effect in Arkansas also reveals that Arkansas would be a blue state in November if Hillary Clinton is the nominee but would be a Democratic loss if Obama is the nominee. The Kyle Effect is 24 points in Arkansas! This is the largest Kyle Effect spread yet. The impact is bigger in Arkansas than anywhere else due to her lengthy tenure as the state’s First Lady. To put it plainly, if Obama is the nominee we lose Arkansas to McCain. I will continue to follow the trends but this does not bode well for Obama. Although Obama is doing much better than the previous poll on Arkansas he is not substantially picking up the support of those Arkansas voters who choose Hillary in a match up with McCain.